Hand analysis: lojack and the small blind go all in on the flop
2024-09-26
Today, let's talk about a hand that got a little out of hand on the flop. In this hand, the human player was the small blind (SB), playing against 8 game theory optimal (GTO) bots in a 1/2 game with a BB ante.
By the way, in case you're new here, ActionFlop lets you practice poker by playing against GTO bots. As you play, ActionFlop keeps track of your mistakes so that you can learn from them afterwards. You can choose to play heads up against a GTO bot, or you can play in a 9-handed 1/2/2 game against 8 GTO bots. Now let's dive into the preflop action.
As you can see, the LJ raises and the SB calls. Let's quickly look at their ranges.
The LJ should raise with pocket pairs 33+, most broadway combos, all suited aces, K6s+, A9, and some suited connectors.
The SB has the BB to act behind him, so he doesn't get to defend as widely as the BB does. His calling range actually looks a lot like a slightly tighter version of the bottom portion of the LJ's range. It includes lower pocket pairs, AQ, AJ, AT, lower suited Aces and other weaker suited holdings, and suited connectors. With ATo, the SB makes the right decision to call. Let's see a flop.
The flop comes 3sJsAd, and the SB has to decide whether to check or bet. The SB is playing with a narrow and capped range against the LJ's uncapped range. Because of this, on the vast majority of flops, the SB should check at least 90% of the time. To simplify, the SB can generally just not even think about it and check 100% of the time. Let's take a look at the SB's strategy for this particular flop.
As you can see, the SB should check about 90% of the time. Nonetheless, he does have a small betting range, and ATo is in it. Before we see his decision, let's consider what kind of flop texture would favor the SB enough that he should seriously consider donk betting. The SB definitely prefers lower cards since his range is heavier in them, but the kind of flop that gets him donk betting the most is one that benefits the suited connectors that he has and the LJ lacks. For example, on an As2s3d flop, the SB should donk bet 30% of the time. Now let's see the SB's decision.
The SB does decide to donk bet. It's not technically a mistake since he should donk bet 3% of the time with this hand, but realistically, the SB is probably overbetting in this spot since it's unlikely he is properly randomizing to bet 3% of the time. Let's take a look at how the LJ should respond.
In the mainline scenario, the LJ would expect to face a check and then he should respond by continuation betting about half the time on this flop. Because the SB surprised with a donk bet, the LJ has a different decision to make. As you can see from the range chart, the LJ folds about 35% of his range, including some inside straight draws, some weaker pairs, and all of his hands which didn't connect with the flop at all. He calls with his stronger draws and other made hands. He also occasionally raises, 6.1% of the time, choosing hands from many parts of his range.
The LJ decides to raise. Again, this is technically not a mistake, but it's something he should do rarely enough that it might suggest he over-raises in this spot. The SB will surely call and see a turn, right? Let's take a look at his range chart, and his hand distribution chart.
SB LJ | |
| Overall | |
| ThreeOfAKind; ThreeFlush | |
| ThreeOfAKind | |
| TwoPair; ThreeFlush | |
| TwoPair | |
| OnePair; FourFlush | |
| OnePair; ThreeFlush | |
| OnePair | |
| HighCard; FourFlush; InsideStraightDraw | |
| HighCard; FourFlush | |
| HighCard; ThreeFlush; InsideStraightDraw | |
| HighCard; InsideStraightDraw | |
| HighCard; ThreeFlush | |
| HighCard |
The SB does get to jam all in with some of his strongest holdings (sets and two pairs), and some flush draws. But with ATo, he should only be calling or folding. In this case, he should call when he has a spade, and fold otherwise.
For whatever reason (possibly tilt), the SB goes all in with his pair of aces, which is a pure mistake. The LJ is faced with a decision. Let's look at his range chart.
As you can see, the LJ should call with sets and most Ax hands. The notable exception is that the LJ should actually fold his AK holdings that lack spades because these hands block many of SB's bluffs.
The LJ decides to call. Before we see the result, let's briefly consider the ranges the players should have.
SB LJ | |
| Overall | |
| ThreeOfAKind; ThreeFlush | |
| ThreeOfAKind | |
| TwoPair; ThreeFlush | |
| TwoPair | |
| OnePair; FourFlush | |
| OnePair; ThreeFlush | |
| OnePair | |
| HighCard; FourFlush; InsideStraightDraw | |
| HighCard; FourFlush | |
| HighCard; ThreeFlush; InsideStraightDraw | |
| HighCard; InsideStraightDraw | |
| HighCard; ThreeFlush | |
| HighCard |
The players got all in on the flop, so these should be fairly strong ranges, and they are. Both players should have sets a lot of the time, and various flush draws the rest of the time. Obviously, the SB made a pure mistake, so his actual holding is not included. Its presence in his actual range as played means that he shows up here with a weaker range than what he should have. All right, time to see a turn, river and showdown!
The LJ turns over a set of Jacks and takes the pot. I hope you enjoyed this hand analysis. Stay tuned for more!